Pawlenty 2012: The Little Campaign That Could?

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Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty pre-announced Thursday, and then alluded to announcing Sunday, and finally formally announced Monday, his intention to run for the GOP nomination for President of the United States. Already the Democratic NAtional Committee has posted an ad against him, and even Pawlenty has been more than acknowledging of his long shot financial status going up against the current front-runner, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

T-Paw, as he has been tagged in social media circles, announced his intention to announce, and described his potential, in a well-produced video posted Sunday night, days after his campaign confirmed a report that his bid would go public Monday during a town hall meeting from Des Moines Iowa. While his recognition seems to have slowly increased in the days following his appearance as the closest thing to a top-tier candidate at the Fox News South Carolina debate, he is still considered much of a longshot, and has been largely ignored by the GOP establishment.

Pawlenty is well aware of his lack of popular notice in the earliest days of the race, and how that translates into fundraising status, he consistently defers to Governor Romney in the money race, calling his campaign a “solid Buick, or possibly a Cadillac”, compared to Romney’s BMW or Mercedes. He again made that analogy well before the official announcement coming this afternoon, during an appearance on ABC’s Good Morning America, but pointed to his seriousness as a candidate, and the American public’s desire for “serious solutions” as the momentum behind his campaign, instead of the possibility of being the “entertainer in chief”, as he wrote in an op-ed in Monday’s USA Today. His financial battle, explained campaign manager Nick Ayers in an interview with Politico, is one similar to former GOP nominee John McCain, and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, and “they did fine”.

His potential grows considerably as the news of Mitch Daniel’s deference to his family’s concerns erased any hopes for a White House bid, and leaves Pawlenty as the most “experienced” option outside of Romney, whose campaign has snagged, and may continue to snag, on that pesky health care reform legislature he authored while in office in Massachusetts. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman may also stand to benefit from Daniel’s departure, but again, he is another candidate with proximity to the current administration, and it makes conservatives wary.

The Democratic National Committee could be portrayed as wary of Pawlenty’s potential, as they immediately posted a response video to his pre-announcement, questioning the motives behind the former Minnesota Governor’s bid. They highlight a statement taken from Pawlenty during a Time Magazine interview about why he was running for the White House, where he does not seem to have a clear response at the time, and mention his lowered approval ratings around the time he voiced his decision not to seek another term as Governor. They also call into question Pawlenty’s apparent avoidance of the Ryan budget debate.

Pawlenty’s decision to announce from Iowa is one that will not go unnoticed by the critical state, he will gain ground in the region as candidates such as Romney and Huntsman have been barely visible in the first caucus state, and is expected to be a key player in the August Ames Straw Poll. His home state’s proximity to the region has allowed him to make more than a dozen trips to the state of Iowa already, and a good showing in that region could help to convince the frustrated Republican Party that he is the “super-candidate” that Romney isn’t, and the one they have been searching for.His strengths include a strong fiscal record, and a general lack of major flaws, no questionable family history, no extraordinary flip-flops outside of the issue of cap and trade, for which candidate Pawlenty has apologized for, and mostly pushed past the mistake, and has the ability to unite the three major factions of the GOP; the religious based conservative bracket, the Tea Party, and the more moderate establishment Republicans, but only if his campaign can last past the early primaries. Pawlenty knows that while he can announce from Iowa and build up that support, he can not place all of his eggs into that basket, and will make trips to Florida and New Hampshire within a week of his formal candidacy kickoff.

***UPDATE***

Pawlenty promoted a message of honesty, even if its hard to swallow for some states, in his formal candidacy announcement from a Town Hall event in Des Moines Iowa Monday.

Pawlenty understood the risk he was taking, opening his remarks with this statement, <em>“Politicians are often afraid that if they’re too honest, they might lose an election,”</em> but his campaign hopes that America will respond to “A Time for Truth”, the theme to much of his rhetoric in the last few days, and that it will be enough to jump start his still unknown candidacy into the top-tier, flooding his campaign coffers with enough cash to propel him past the primaries in January.

Pawlenty tackled gradually removing ethanol subsidies in Iowa, adjusting the entry age for Social Security, critical to his next stop in Florida, and ending the practice of bailouts, handouts and golden parachutes in his third stop, Wall Street. His endpoint will be Washington, where he is ready to end the union “seniority” policy, instituting benefits based on results, and telling the National Labor Regulation Board that is will “never again” affect a US company’s choice in where to do business. He is also expected to make a stop in New Hampshire later this week.

Pawlenty cited his credentials as two term Governor of Minnesota, where he cut taxes and spending, reformed unions, and selected conservatives for appointment to the state Supreme Court, while reforming union incentives, requiring pay rates for teachers based on performance, and ensuring choice for residents in need of health care. His campaign has pushed a message of “Mr. Nice Guy”, highlighting his lack of critical flaws, and record results, but it has advanced very little in the ground game against some of the bigger name opponents. Early polls included names such as Huckabee, Barbour, and Trump, and now after their departure from the race, Pawlenty stands as the closest thing to a top-tier announced candidate outside of Gingrich and Romney. The question is whether or not he can stand out enough to be noticed outside of the top 3, and what impact some of the other lower level candidates and others who may join the fray at a later date will have on his momentum.

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